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Horse racing expected return [closed]
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Is there a formula for expected return for flexi betting on horse racing quadrella.
As the betting pools and bet percentages vary?
derivatives
asked Aug 2 at 4:29
Max
11
closed as off-topic by spaceisdarkgreen, Karn Watcharasupat, Siong Thye Goh, Leucippus, Lord Shark the Unknown Aug 2 at 5:30
This question appears to be off-topic. The users who voted to close gave this specific reason:
- "This question is missing context or other details: Please improve the question by providing additional context, which ideally includes your thoughts on the problem and any attempts you have made to solve it. This information helps others identify where you have difficulties and helps them write answers appropriate to your experience level." – spaceisdarkgreen, Karn Watcharasupat, Leucippus, Lord Shark the Unknown
 |Â
show 3 more comments
up vote
-3
down vote
favorite
Is there a formula for expected return for flexi betting on horse racing quadrella.
As the betting pools and bet percentages vary?
derivatives
asked Aug 2 at 4:29
Max
11
closed as off-topic by spaceisdarkgreen, Karn Watcharasupat, Siong Thye Goh, Leucippus, Lord Shark the Unknown Aug 2 at 5:30
This question appears to be off-topic. The users who voted to close gave this specific reason:
- "This question is missing context or other details: Please improve the question by providing additional context, which ideally includes your thoughts on the problem and any attempts you have made to solve it. This information helps others identify where you have difficulties and helps them write answers appropriate to your experience level." – spaceisdarkgreen, Karn Watcharasupat, Leucippus, Lord Shark the Unknown
2
One can compute it, but few of us know the rules for flexi betting on a quadrella, or even what one is.
– Ross Millikan
Aug 2 at 4:40
A quadrella is finding the winner of all 4 races eg. race 6,7,8 and 9. quaddies are calculated by times no of horses in each leg by the next leg or race eg.4x6x8x2=384 this can be flexi bet for a percentage eg 10%=$38.40
– Max
Aug 2 at 4:56
1
How do you compute the probability of a given horse winning its race?
– Ross Millikan
Aug 2 at 4:58
ALL odds on horses in the race are priced to their chance of winning the race to total 100%
– Max
Aug 2 at 5:04
@Max, refer to book named "Paul Wilmott introduces Quantitative Finance". You will get some knowledge about Horse race betting and no arbitrage, expected returns,standard deviations.
– Dhamnekar Winod
Aug 2 at 5:08
 |Â
show 3 more comments
up vote
-3
down vote
favorite
up vote
-3
down vote
favorite
Is there a formula for expected return for flexi betting on horse racing quadrella.
As the betting pools and bet percentages vary?
derivatives
asked Aug 2 at 4:29
Max
11
Is there a formula for expected return for flexi betting on horse racing quadrella.
As the betting pools and bet percentages vary?
derivatives
asked Aug 2 at 4:29
Max
11
asked Aug 2 at 4:29
Max
11
asked Aug 2 at 4:29
Max
11
asked Aug 2 at 4:29
Max
11
11
closed as off-topic by spaceisdarkgreen, Karn Watcharasupat, Siong Thye Goh, Leucippus, Lord Shark the Unknown Aug 2 at 5:30
This question appears to be off-topic. The users who voted to close gave this specific reason:
- "This question is missing context or other details: Please improve the question by providing additional context, which ideally includes your thoughts on the problem and any attempts you have made to solve it. This information helps others identify where you have difficulties and helps them write answers appropriate to your experience level." – spaceisdarkgreen, Karn Watcharasupat, Leucippus, Lord Shark the Unknown
closed as off-topic by spaceisdarkgreen, Karn Watcharasupat, Siong Thye Goh, Leucippus, Lord Shark the Unknown Aug 2 at 5:30
This question appears to be off-topic. The users who voted to close gave this specific reason:
- "This question is missing context or other details: Please improve the question by providing additional context, which ideally includes your thoughts on the problem and any attempts you have made to solve it. This information helps others identify where you have difficulties and helps them write answers appropriate to your experience level." – spaceisdarkgreen, Karn Watcharasupat, Leucippus, Lord Shark the Unknown
2
One can compute it, but few of us know the rules for flexi betting on a quadrella, or even what one is.
– Ross Millikan
Aug 2 at 4:40
A quadrella is finding the winner of all 4 races eg. race 6,7,8 and 9. quaddies are calculated by times no of horses in each leg by the next leg or race eg.4x6x8x2=384 this can be flexi bet for a percentage eg 10%=$38.40
– Max
Aug 2 at 4:56
1
How do you compute the probability of a given horse winning its race?
– Ross Millikan
Aug 2 at 4:58
ALL odds on horses in the race are priced to their chance of winning the race to total 100%
– Max
Aug 2 at 5:04
@Max, refer to book named "Paul Wilmott introduces Quantitative Finance". You will get some knowledge about Horse race betting and no arbitrage, expected returns,standard deviations.
– Dhamnekar Winod
Aug 2 at 5:08
 |Â
show 3 more comments
2
One can compute it, but few of us know the rules for flexi betting on a quadrella, or even what one is.
– Ross Millikan
Aug 2 at 4:40
A quadrella is finding the winner of all 4 races eg. race 6,7,8 and 9. quaddies are calculated by times no of horses in each leg by the next leg or race eg.4x6x8x2=384 this can be flexi bet for a percentage eg 10%=$38.40
– Max
Aug 2 at 4:56
1
How do you compute the probability of a given horse winning its race?
– Ross Millikan
Aug 2 at 4:58
ALL odds on horses in the race are priced to their chance of winning the race to total 100%
– Max
Aug 2 at 5:04
@Max, refer to book named "Paul Wilmott introduces Quantitative Finance". You will get some knowledge about Horse race betting and no arbitrage, expected returns,standard deviations.
– Dhamnekar Winod
Aug 2 at 5:08
2
2
One can compute it, but few of us know the rules for flexi betting on a quadrella, or even what one is.
– Ross Millikan
Aug 2 at 4:40
One can compute it, but few of us know the rules for flexi betting on a quadrella, or even what one is.
– Ross Millikan
Aug 2 at 4:40
A quadrella is finding the winner of all 4 races eg. race 6,7,8 and 9. quaddies are calculated by times no of horses in each leg by the next leg or race eg.4x6x8x2=384 this can be flexi bet for a percentage eg 10%=$38.40
– Max
Aug 2 at 4:56
A quadrella is finding the winner of all 4 races eg. race 6,7,8 and 9. quaddies are calculated by times no of horses in each leg by the next leg or race eg.4x6x8x2=384 this can be flexi bet for a percentage eg 10%=$38.40
– Max
Aug 2 at 4:56
1
1
How do you compute the probability of a given horse winning its race?
– Ross Millikan
Aug 2 at 4:58
How do you compute the probability of a given horse winning its race?
– Ross Millikan
Aug 2 at 4:58
ALL odds on horses in the race are priced to their chance of winning the race to total 100%
– Max
Aug 2 at 5:04
ALL odds on horses in the race are priced to their chance of winning the race to total 100%
– Max
Aug 2 at 5:04
@Max, refer to book named "Paul Wilmott introduces Quantitative Finance". You will get some knowledge about Horse race betting and no arbitrage, expected returns,standard deviations.
– Dhamnekar Winod
Aug 2 at 5:08
@Max, refer to book named "Paul Wilmott introduces Quantitative Finance". You will get some knowledge about Horse race betting and no arbitrage, expected returns,standard deviations.
– Dhamnekar Winod
Aug 2 at 5:08
 |Â
show 3 more comments
1 Answer
1
active
oldest
votes
up vote
0
down vote
If you know the chance that each horse wins its race, say from the posted odds, you can just compute the chance of having the winner in each race by adding them. Say in race $6$ you have horse $1$ with a $10%$ chance, horse $2$ with a $20%$ chance, horse $3$ with a $25%$ chance and the rest for the others. If you bet a ticket with $1,2,3$ in race $6$ you have $55%$ chance of having the winner in that race. Compute the sum for each of the races and multiply them. That gives the chance your ticket is a winner.
In my experience the posted odds do not add up to $100%$ because the house wants a profit. You could scale the posted odds up linearly to get to $100%$. Also most horse race bettors who hope to make a profit must believe they know better than the posted odds the probability any given horse will win, which is why they bet.
answered Aug 2 at 5:19
Ross Millikan
275k21184351
I have a real money sample size of 400 races or 100 quaddies returning over 60%
– Max
Aug 2 at 5:23
I have all the data and can work out the obvious stats but not able to work out a formula to see if it is viable long term.
– Max
Aug 2 at 5:26
The tote takeout for quaddies in Australia is around 20% on the 4 races in total, not 20% per race. Also if you wager on a quaddie with a bookmaker on the quaddie, you are not betting in the same pool, those are 2 huge advantages.
– Max
Aug 2 at 5:32
add a comment |Â
1 Answer
1
active
oldest
votes
1 Answer
1
active
oldest
votes
active
oldest
votes
active
oldest
votes
up vote
0
down vote
If you know the chance that each horse wins its race, say from the posted odds, you can just compute the chance of having the winner in each race by adding them. Say in race $6$ you have horse $1$ with a $10%$ chance, horse $2$ with a $20%$ chance, horse $3$ with a $25%$ chance and the rest for the others. If you bet a ticket with $1,2,3$ in race $6$ you have $55%$ chance of having the winner in that race. Compute the sum for each of the races and multiply them. That gives the chance your ticket is a winner.
In my experience the posted odds do not add up to $100%$ because the house wants a profit. You could scale the posted odds up linearly to get to $100%$. Also most horse race bettors who hope to make a profit must believe they know better than the posted odds the probability any given horse will win, which is why they bet.
answered Aug 2 at 5:19
Ross Millikan
275k21184351
I have a real money sample size of 400 races or 100 quaddies returning over 60%
– Max
Aug 2 at 5:23
I have all the data and can work out the obvious stats but not able to work out a formula to see if it is viable long term.
– Max
Aug 2 at 5:26
The tote takeout for quaddies in Australia is around 20% on the 4 races in total, not 20% per race. Also if you wager on a quaddie with a bookmaker on the quaddie, you are not betting in the same pool, those are 2 huge advantages.
– Max
Aug 2 at 5:32
add a comment |Â
up vote
0
down vote
If you know the chance that each horse wins its race, say from the posted odds, you can just compute the chance of having the winner in each race by adding them. Say in race $6$ you have horse $1$ with a $10%$ chance, horse $2$ with a $20%$ chance, horse $3$ with a $25%$ chance and the rest for the others. If you bet a ticket with $1,2,3$ in race $6$ you have $55%$ chance of having the winner in that race. Compute the sum for each of the races and multiply them. That gives the chance your ticket is a winner.
In my experience the posted odds do not add up to $100%$ because the house wants a profit. You could scale the posted odds up linearly to get to $100%$. Also most horse race bettors who hope to make a profit must believe they know better than the posted odds the probability any given horse will win, which is why they bet.
answered Aug 2 at 5:19
Ross Millikan
275k21184351
I have a real money sample size of 400 races or 100 quaddies returning over 60%
– Max
Aug 2 at 5:23
I have all the data and can work out the obvious stats but not able to work out a formula to see if it is viable long term.
– Max
Aug 2 at 5:26
The tote takeout for quaddies in Australia is around 20% on the 4 races in total, not 20% per race. Also if you wager on a quaddie with a bookmaker on the quaddie, you are not betting in the same pool, those are 2 huge advantages.
– Max
Aug 2 at 5:32
add a comment |Â
up vote
0
down vote
up vote
0
down vote
If you know the chance that each horse wins its race, say from the posted odds, you can just compute the chance of having the winner in each race by adding them. Say in race $6$ you have horse $1$ with a $10%$ chance, horse $2$ with a $20%$ chance, horse $3$ with a $25%$ chance and the rest for the others. If you bet a ticket with $1,2,3$ in race $6$ you have $55%$ chance of having the winner in that race. Compute the sum for each of the races and multiply them. That gives the chance your ticket is a winner.
In my experience the posted odds do not add up to $100%$ because the house wants a profit. You could scale the posted odds up linearly to get to $100%$. Also most horse race bettors who hope to make a profit must believe they know better than the posted odds the probability any given horse will win, which is why they bet.
answered Aug 2 at 5:19
Ross Millikan
275k21184351
If you know the chance that each horse wins its race, say from the posted odds, you can just compute the chance of having the winner in each race by adding them. Say in race $6$ you have horse $1$ with a $10%$ chance, horse $2$ with a $20%$ chance, horse $3$ with a $25%$ chance and the rest for the others. If you bet a ticket with $1,2,3$ in race $6$ you have $55%$ chance of having the winner in that race. Compute the sum for each of the races and multiply them. That gives the chance your ticket is a winner.
In my experience the posted odds do not add up to $100%$ because the house wants a profit. You could scale the posted odds up linearly to get to $100%$. Also most horse race bettors who hope to make a profit must believe they know better than the posted odds the probability any given horse will win, which is why they bet.
answered Aug 2 at 5:19
Ross Millikan
275k21184351
answered Aug 2 at 5:19
Ross Millikan
275k21184351
answered Aug 2 at 5:19
Ross Millikan
275k21184351
answered Aug 2 at 5:19
Ross Millikan
275k21184351
275k21184351
I have a real money sample size of 400 races or 100 quaddies returning over 60%
– Max
Aug 2 at 5:23
I have all the data and can work out the obvious stats but not able to work out a formula to see if it is viable long term.
– Max
Aug 2 at 5:26
The tote takeout for quaddies in Australia is around 20% on the 4 races in total, not 20% per race. Also if you wager on a quaddie with a bookmaker on the quaddie, you are not betting in the same pool, those are 2 huge advantages.
– Max
Aug 2 at 5:32
add a comment |Â
I have a real money sample size of 400 races or 100 quaddies returning over 60%
– Max
Aug 2 at 5:23
I have all the data and can work out the obvious stats but not able to work out a formula to see if it is viable long term.
– Max
Aug 2 at 5:26
The tote takeout for quaddies in Australia is around 20% on the 4 races in total, not 20% per race. Also if you wager on a quaddie with a bookmaker on the quaddie, you are not betting in the same pool, those are 2 huge advantages.
– Max
Aug 2 at 5:32
I have a real money sample size of 400 races or 100 quaddies returning over 60%
– Max
Aug 2 at 5:23
I have a real money sample size of 400 races or 100 quaddies returning over 60%
– Max
Aug 2 at 5:23
I have all the data and can work out the obvious stats but not able to work out a formula to see if it is viable long term.
– Max
Aug 2 at 5:26
I have all the data and can work out the obvious stats but not able to work out a formula to see if it is viable long term.
– Max
Aug 2 at 5:26
The tote takeout for quaddies in Australia is around 20% on the 4 races in total, not 20% per race. Also if you wager on a quaddie with a bookmaker on the quaddie, you are not betting in the same pool, those are 2 huge advantages.
– Max
Aug 2 at 5:32
The tote takeout for quaddies in Australia is around 20% on the 4 races in total, not 20% per race. Also if you wager on a quaddie with a bookmaker on the quaddie, you are not betting in the same pool, those are 2 huge advantages.
– Max
Aug 2 at 5:32
add a comment |Â
2
One can compute it, but few of us know the rules for flexi betting on a quadrella, or even what one is.
– Ross Millikan
Aug 2 at 4:40
A quadrella is finding the winner of all 4 races eg. race 6,7,8 and 9. quaddies are calculated by times no of horses in each leg by the next leg or race eg.4x6x8x2=384 this can be flexi bet for a percentage eg 10%=$38.40
– Max
Aug 2 at 4:56
1
How do you compute the probability of a given horse winning its race?
– Ross Millikan
Aug 2 at 4:58
ALL odds on horses in the race are priced to their chance of winning the race to total 100%
– Max
Aug 2 at 5:04
@Max, refer to book named "Paul Wilmott introduces Quantitative Finance". You will get some knowledge about Horse race betting and no arbitrage, expected returns,standard deviations.
– Dhamnekar Winod
Aug 2 at 5:08