Prediction Probabilty question

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My questions concerns the probability/ likelihood of an event occurring again.
In a horse race, a horse has had 10 races.
It's speed figures have been 50, 74, 65, 58, 65, 80, 76, 64, 81, 78.
It is 5yrs old (they don't improve with age)
Question 1
All other things being equal, what is the likelihood that it will equal or run a speed figure better than its best (the 81 speed figure) or even an 80 in its 11th race today?
Question 2
What will it's likeliest next figure be (today - in its 11th race)?

If the question is unanswerable with the given information, what other data might I need to answer / create a formula that can predict/ provide an estimation of such an outcome?

I am a newbie to anything other than basic arithmetic.
Thank you

probability

share|cite|improve this question

edited 2 days ago

asked Aug 4 at 1:47

SooperSpeshul

61

add a comment | 

up vote
-2
down vote

favorite

My questions concerns the probability/ likelihood of an event occurring again.
In a horse race, a horse has had 10 races.
It's speed figures have been 50, 74, 65, 58, 65, 80, 76, 64, 81, 78.
It is 5yrs old (they don't improve with age)
Question 1
All other things being equal, what is the likelihood that it will equal or run a speed figure better than its best (the 81 speed figure) or even an 80 in its 11th race today?
Question 2
What will it's likeliest next figure be (today - in its 11th race)?

If the question is unanswerable with the given information, what other data might I need to answer / create a formula that can predict/ provide an estimation of such an outcome?

I am a newbie to anything other than basic arithmetic.
Thank you

probability

share|cite|improve this question

edited 2 days ago

asked Aug 4 at 1:47

SooperSpeshul

61

add a comment | 

up vote
-2
down vote

favorite

up vote
-2
down vote

favorite

My questions concerns the probability/ likelihood of an event occurring again.
In a horse race, a horse has had 10 races.
It's speed figures have been 50, 74, 65, 58, 65, 80, 76, 64, 81, 78.
It is 5yrs old (they don't improve with age)
Question 1
All other things being equal, what is the likelihood that it will equal or run a speed figure better than its best (the 81 speed figure) or even an 80 in its 11th race today?
Question 2
What will it's likeliest next figure be (today - in its 11th race)?

If the question is unanswerable with the given information, what other data might I need to answer / create a formula that can predict/ provide an estimation of such an outcome?

I am a newbie to anything other than basic arithmetic.
Thank you

probability

share|cite|improve this question

edited 2 days ago

asked Aug 4 at 1:47

SooperSpeshul

61

My questions concerns the probability/ likelihood of an event occurring again.
In a horse race, a horse has had 10 races.
It's speed figures have been 50, 74, 65, 58, 65, 80, 76, 64, 81, 78.
It is 5yrs old (they don't improve with age)
Question 1
All other things being equal, what is the likelihood that it will equal or run a speed figure better than its best (the 81 speed figure) or even an 80 in its 11th race today?
Question 2
What will it's likeliest next figure be (today - in its 11th race)?

If the question is unanswerable with the given information, what other data might I need to answer / create a formula that can predict/ provide an estimation of such an outcome?

I am a newbie to anything other than basic arithmetic.
Thank you

probability

share|cite|improve this question

edited 2 days ago

asked Aug 4 at 1:47

SooperSpeshul

61

share|cite|improve this question

share|cite|improve this question

edited 2 days ago

edited 2 days ago

edited 2 days ago

asked Aug 4 at 1:47

SooperSpeshul

61

asked Aug 4 at 1:47

SooperSpeshul

61

asked Aug 4 at 1:47

SooperSpeshul

61

61

add a comment | 

add a comment | 

1 Answer
1

active

oldest

votes

up vote
0
down vote

I know nothing about horses or their speeds. The question is not answerable
without additional information or assumptions.

The sample mean and standard deviation of the past running times are 69.1 and 10.32,
respectively. If we assume that the horse's next running time $X$ will be normal
with population mean 69.1 and standard deviation 10.32, then
$P(X > 81) = 1 - P(X le 81) approx 0.12.$ (You could get that probability by standardizing and using a printed normal table; I used R statistical software below.)

mean(x); sd(x)
## 69.1
## 10.32204

1 - pnorm(81, 69.1, 10.32)
## 0.1244345

However, even if it is true that running times are normal, the sample
mean and standard deviation of only ten runs would not give very reliable
estimates of population mean and standard deviation. So this is more wild
speculation that statistical prediction.

share|cite|improve this answer

answered 2 days ago

BruceET

33k61440

• 
  
  
  

  
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  @JacobCleveland's perfectly sensible answer was down-voted and then deleted. I hope he will try answering other questions.
  – BruceET
  2 days ago
  
  

  
  
  
  


• 
  
  
  

  
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  Thank you. This works for me. Can this formula be created in Excel?
  – SooperSpeshul
  yesterday
  

  
  
  
  


• 
  
  
  

  
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  Sorry, don't know for sure about Excel. Pretty sure it will find mean and SD and do normal probability look-ups, but don't know the syntax for a 'formula'. // While the answer is completely speculative, you were asked to speculate. It is encouraging that some later running times have been better than earlier ones, so maybe the horse is not yet ready for retirement. Before betting, I'd want a vet's report. // Another approach might be to regress running times on running dates and try to 'predict' next run, but that would give a 'prediction interval', not automatically a probability.
  – BruceET
  yesterday
  
  

  
  
  
  


• 
  
  
  

  
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  Hahaha. Thank you again. This is an exercise, on my part, to figure our the likelihood of a horse running to it's best figure or even improving on it. (Speed figures are relative - I doubt they mean much - however, I am only interested in figuring out the likelihood of the above mentioned event occurring). I would like to know how to write this in Excel, though. So, if anyone else knows how to write this in Excel, please feel free to educate me. Thank you all.
  – SooperSpeshul
  yesterday
  

  
  
  
  


• 
  
  
  

  
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  I know how to create the Average and the Standard Deviation in Excel. However, I don't know how to get that answer (0.1244345). Thank you.
  – SooperSpeshul
  yesterday
  
  

  
  
  
  

add a comment | 

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1 Answer
1

active

oldest

votes

1 Answer
1

active

oldest

votes

active

oldest

votes

active

oldest

votes

up vote
0
down vote

I know nothing about horses or their speeds. The question is not answerable
without additional information or assumptions.

The sample mean and standard deviation of the past running times are 69.1 and 10.32,
respectively. If we assume that the horse's next running time $X$ will be normal
with population mean 69.1 and standard deviation 10.32, then
$P(X > 81) = 1 - P(X le 81) approx 0.12.$ (You could get that probability by standardizing and using a printed normal table; I used R statistical software below.)

mean(x); sd(x)
## 69.1
## 10.32204

1 - pnorm(81, 69.1, 10.32)
## 0.1244345

However, even if it is true that running times are normal, the sample
mean and standard deviation of only ten runs would not give very reliable
estimates of population mean and standard deviation. So this is more wild
speculation that statistical prediction.

share|cite|improve this answer

answered 2 days ago

BruceET

33k61440

• 
  
  
  

  
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  @JacobCleveland's perfectly sensible answer was down-voted and then deleted. I hope he will try answering other questions.
  – BruceET
  2 days ago
  
  

  
  
  
  


• 
  
  
  

  
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  Thank you. This works for me. Can this formula be created in Excel?
  – SooperSpeshul
  yesterday
  

  
  
  
  


• 
  
  
  

  
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  Sorry, don't know for sure about Excel. Pretty sure it will find mean and SD and do normal probability look-ups, but don't know the syntax for a 'formula'. // While the answer is completely speculative, you were asked to speculate. It is encouraging that some later running times have been better than earlier ones, so maybe the horse is not yet ready for retirement. Before betting, I'd want a vet's report. // Another approach might be to regress running times on running dates and try to 'predict' next run, but that would give a 'prediction interval', not automatically a probability.
  – BruceET
  yesterday
  
  

  
  
  
  


• 
  
  
  

  
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  Hahaha. Thank you again. This is an exercise, on my part, to figure our the likelihood of a horse running to it's best figure or even improving on it. (Speed figures are relative - I doubt they mean much - however, I am only interested in figuring out the likelihood of the above mentioned event occurring). I would like to know how to write this in Excel, though. So, if anyone else knows how to write this in Excel, please feel free to educate me. Thank you all.
  – SooperSpeshul
  yesterday
  

  
  
  
  


• 
  
  
  

  
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  I know how to create the Average and the Standard Deviation in Excel. However, I don't know how to get that answer (0.1244345). Thank you.
  – SooperSpeshul
  yesterday
  
  

  
  
  
  

add a comment | 

up vote
0
down vote

I know nothing about horses or their speeds. The question is not answerable
without additional information or assumptions.

The sample mean and standard deviation of the past running times are 69.1 and 10.32,
respectively. If we assume that the horse's next running time $X$ will be normal
with population mean 69.1 and standard deviation 10.32, then
$P(X > 81) = 1 - P(X le 81) approx 0.12.$ (You could get that probability by standardizing and using a printed normal table; I used R statistical software below.)

mean(x); sd(x)
## 69.1
## 10.32204

1 - pnorm(81, 69.1, 10.32)
## 0.1244345

However, even if it is true that running times are normal, the sample
mean and standard deviation of only ten runs would not give very reliable
estimates of population mean and standard deviation. So this is more wild
speculation that statistical prediction.

share|cite|improve this answer

answered 2 days ago

BruceET

33k61440

• 
  
  
  

  
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  @JacobCleveland's perfectly sensible answer was down-voted and then deleted. I hope he will try answering other questions.
  – BruceET
  2 days ago
  
  

  
  
  
  


• 
  
  
  

  
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  Thank you. This works for me. Can this formula be created in Excel?
  – SooperSpeshul
  yesterday
  

  
  
  
  


• 
  
  
  

  
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  Sorry, don't know for sure about Excel. Pretty sure it will find mean and SD and do normal probability look-ups, but don't know the syntax for a 'formula'. // While the answer is completely speculative, you were asked to speculate. It is encouraging that some later running times have been better than earlier ones, so maybe the horse is not yet ready for retirement. Before betting, I'd want a vet's report. // Another approach might be to regress running times on running dates and try to 'predict' next run, but that would give a 'prediction interval', not automatically a probability.
  – BruceET
  yesterday
  
  

  
  
  
  


• 
  
  
  

  
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  Hahaha. Thank you again. This is an exercise, on my part, to figure our the likelihood of a horse running to it's best figure or even improving on it. (Speed figures are relative - I doubt they mean much - however, I am only interested in figuring out the likelihood of the above mentioned event occurring). I would like to know how to write this in Excel, though. So, if anyone else knows how to write this in Excel, please feel free to educate me. Thank you all.
  – SooperSpeshul
  yesterday
  

  
  
  
  


• 
  
  
  

  
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  I know how to create the Average and the Standard Deviation in Excel. However, I don't know how to get that answer (0.1244345). Thank you.
  – SooperSpeshul
  yesterday
  
  

  
  
  
  

add a comment | 

up vote
0
down vote

up vote
0
down vote

I know nothing about horses or their speeds. The question is not answerable
without additional information or assumptions.

The sample mean and standard deviation of the past running times are 69.1 and 10.32,
respectively. If we assume that the horse's next running time $X$ will be normal
with population mean 69.1 and standard deviation 10.32, then
$P(X > 81) = 1 - P(X le 81) approx 0.12.$ (You could get that probability by standardizing and using a printed normal table; I used R statistical software below.)

mean(x); sd(x)
## 69.1
## 10.32204

1 - pnorm(81, 69.1, 10.32)
## 0.1244345

However, even if it is true that running times are normal, the sample
mean and standard deviation of only ten runs would not give very reliable
estimates of population mean and standard deviation. So this is more wild
speculation that statistical prediction.

share|cite|improve this answer

answered 2 days ago

BruceET

33k61440

I know nothing about horses or their speeds. The question is not answerable
without additional information or assumptions.

The sample mean and standard deviation of the past running times are 69.1 and 10.32,
respectively. If we assume that the horse's next running time $X$ will be normal
with population mean 69.1 and standard deviation 10.32, then
$P(X > 81) = 1 - P(X le 81) approx 0.12.$ (You could get that probability by standardizing and using a printed normal table; I used R statistical software below.)

mean(x); sd(x)
## 69.1
## 10.32204

1 - pnorm(81, 69.1, 10.32)
## 0.1244345

However, even if it is true that running times are normal, the sample
mean and standard deviation of only ten runs would not give very reliable
estimates of population mean and standard deviation. So this is more wild
speculation that statistical prediction.

share|cite|improve this answer

answered 2 days ago

BruceET

33k61440

share|cite|improve this answer

share|cite|improve this answer

answered 2 days ago

BruceET

33k61440

answered 2 days ago

BruceET

33k61440

answered 2 days ago

BruceET

33k61440

33k61440

• 
  
  
  

  
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  @JacobCleveland's perfectly sensible answer was down-voted and then deleted. I hope he will try answering other questions.
  – BruceET
  2 days ago
  
  

  
  
  
  


• 
  
  
  

  
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  Thank you. This works for me. Can this formula be created in Excel?
  – SooperSpeshul
  yesterday
  

  
  
  
  


• 
  
  
  

  
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  Sorry, don't know for sure about Excel. Pretty sure it will find mean and SD and do normal probability look-ups, but don't know the syntax for a 'formula'. // While the answer is completely speculative, you were asked to speculate. It is encouraging that some later running times have been better than earlier ones, so maybe the horse is not yet ready for retirement. Before betting, I'd want a vet's report. // Another approach might be to regress running times on running dates and try to 'predict' next run, but that would give a 'prediction interval', not automatically a probability.
  – BruceET
  yesterday
  
  

  
  
  
  


• 
  
  
  

  
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  Hahaha. Thank you again. This is an exercise, on my part, to figure our the likelihood of a horse running to it's best figure or even improving on it. (Speed figures are relative - I doubt they mean much - however, I am only interested in figuring out the likelihood of the above mentioned event occurring). I would like to know how to write this in Excel, though. So, if anyone else knows how to write this in Excel, please feel free to educate me. Thank you all.
  – SooperSpeshul
  yesterday
  

  
  
  
  


• 
  
  
  

  
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  I know how to create the Average and the Standard Deviation in Excel. However, I don't know how to get that answer (0.1244345). Thank you.
  – SooperSpeshul
  yesterday
  
  

  
  
  
  

add a comment | 

• 
  
  
  

  
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  @JacobCleveland's perfectly sensible answer was down-voted and then deleted. I hope he will try answering other questions.
  – BruceET
  2 days ago
  
  

  
  
  
  


• 
  
  
  

  
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  Thank you. This works for me. Can this formula be created in Excel?
  – SooperSpeshul
  yesterday
  

  
  
  
  


• 
  
  
  

  
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  Sorry, don't know for sure about Excel. Pretty sure it will find mean and SD and do normal probability look-ups, but don't know the syntax for a 'formula'. // While the answer is completely speculative, you were asked to speculate. It is encouraging that some later running times have been better than earlier ones, so maybe the horse is not yet ready for retirement. Before betting, I'd want a vet's report. // Another approach might be to regress running times on running dates and try to 'predict' next run, but that would give a 'prediction interval', not automatically a probability.
  – BruceET
  yesterday
  
  

  
  
  
  


• 
  
  
  

  
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  Hahaha. Thank you again. This is an exercise, on my part, to figure our the likelihood of a horse running to it's best figure or even improving on it. (Speed figures are relative - I doubt they mean much - however, I am only interested in figuring out the likelihood of the above mentioned event occurring). I would like to know how to write this in Excel, though. So, if anyone else knows how to write this in Excel, please feel free to educate me. Thank you all.
  – SooperSpeshul
  yesterday
  

  
  
  
  


• 
  
  
  

  
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  I know how to create the Average and the Standard Deviation in Excel. However, I don't know how to get that answer (0.1244345). Thank you.
  – SooperSpeshul
  yesterday
  
  

  
  
  
  

@JacobCleveland's perfectly sensible answer was down-voted and then deleted. I hope he will try answering other questions.
– BruceET
2 days ago

@JacobCleveland's perfectly sensible answer was down-voted and then deleted. I hope he will try answering other questions.
– BruceET
2 days ago

Thank you. This works for me. Can this formula be created in Excel?
– SooperSpeshul
yesterday

Thank you. This works for me. Can this formula be created in Excel?
– SooperSpeshul
yesterday

Sorry, don't know for sure about Excel. Pretty sure it will find mean and SD and do normal probability look-ups, but don't know the syntax for a 'formula'. // While the answer is completely speculative, you were asked to speculate. It is encouraging that some later running times have been better than earlier ones, so maybe the horse is not yet ready for retirement. Before betting, I'd want a vet's report. // Another approach might be to regress running times on running dates and try to 'predict' next run, but that would give a 'prediction interval', not automatically a probability.
– BruceET
yesterday

Sorry, don't know for sure about Excel. Pretty sure it will find mean and SD and do normal probability look-ups, but don't know the syntax for a 'formula'. // While the answer is completely speculative, you were asked to speculate. It is encouraging that some later running times have been better than earlier ones, so maybe the horse is not yet ready for retirement. Before betting, I'd want a vet's report. // Another approach might be to regress running times on running dates and try to 'predict' next run, but that would give a 'prediction interval', not automatically a probability.
– BruceET
yesterday

Hahaha. Thank you again. This is an exercise, on my part, to figure our the likelihood of a horse running to it's best figure or even improving on it. (Speed figures are relative - I doubt they mean much - however, I am only interested in figuring out the likelihood of the above mentioned event occurring). I would like to know how to write this in Excel, though. So, if anyone else knows how to write this in Excel, please feel free to educate me. Thank you all.
– SooperSpeshul
yesterday

Hahaha. Thank you again. This is an exercise, on my part, to figure our the likelihood of a horse running to it's best figure or even improving on it. (Speed figures are relative - I doubt they mean much - however, I am only interested in figuring out the likelihood of the above mentioned event occurring). I would like to know how to write this in Excel, though. So, if anyone else knows how to write this in Excel, please feel free to educate me. Thank you all.
– SooperSpeshul
yesterday

I know how to create the Average and the Standard Deviation in Excel. However, I don't know how to get that answer (0.1244345). Thank you.
– SooperSpeshul
yesterday

I know how to create the Average and the Standard Deviation in Excel. However, I don't know how to get that answer (0.1244345). Thank you.
– SooperSpeshul
yesterday

add a comment | 

 

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