What is the probability that university will not have enough dormitory rooms?

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A university admitted $2500$ students.However the university has room spots for only $1786$ students. If there is a $70$% chance that an admitted student will accept the offer and attend the university, what it the probability that university will not have enough dormitory rooms?




My analysis:

If there is $70$% that an admitted student accept the offer and attend the university then among the $2500$ students $1750$ would accept the offer. The probability that the university will not have enough dormitory places would be:



$1786-1785/100=0.36$



However the correct answer must be 0.0559 according to the multiple choice question.



Can you tell me what’s wrong with my analysis and what should be the correct way of thinking?







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  • Are you familiar with the Binomial distribution?
    – Chris2018
    Jul 14 at 13:41










  • @Chris2006 : Using Binomial law is far to be a good issue.
    – Surb
    Jul 14 at 13:44






  • 1




    use approximation with normal distribution.
    – Chris2018
    Jul 14 at 13:45






  • 1




    I edited some line breaks into the question for clarity but I have no idea how you get your $0.36$ result. Pease review, correct the formula and clarify with a little .explanation.
    – Joffan
    Jul 14 at 13:52














up vote
0
down vote

favorite
1













A university admitted $2500$ students.However the university has room spots for only $1786$ students. If there is a $70$% chance that an admitted student will accept the offer and attend the university, what it the probability that university will not have enough dormitory rooms?




My analysis:

If there is $70$% that an admitted student accept the offer and attend the university then among the $2500$ students $1750$ would accept the offer. The probability that the university will not have enough dormitory places would be:



$1786-1785/100=0.36$



However the correct answer must be 0.0559 according to the multiple choice question.



Can you tell me what’s wrong with my analysis and what should be the correct way of thinking?







share|cite|improve this question





















  • Are you familiar with the Binomial distribution?
    – Chris2018
    Jul 14 at 13:41










  • @Chris2006 : Using Binomial law is far to be a good issue.
    – Surb
    Jul 14 at 13:44






  • 1




    use approximation with normal distribution.
    – Chris2018
    Jul 14 at 13:45






  • 1




    I edited some line breaks into the question for clarity but I have no idea how you get your $0.36$ result. Pease review, correct the formula and clarify with a little .explanation.
    – Joffan
    Jul 14 at 13:52












up vote
0
down vote

favorite
1









up vote
0
down vote

favorite
1






1






A university admitted $2500$ students.However the university has room spots for only $1786$ students. If there is a $70$% chance that an admitted student will accept the offer and attend the university, what it the probability that university will not have enough dormitory rooms?




My analysis:

If there is $70$% that an admitted student accept the offer and attend the university then among the $2500$ students $1750$ would accept the offer. The probability that the university will not have enough dormitory places would be:



$1786-1785/100=0.36$



However the correct answer must be 0.0559 according to the multiple choice question.



Can you tell me what’s wrong with my analysis and what should be the correct way of thinking?







share|cite|improve this question














A university admitted $2500$ students.However the university has room spots for only $1786$ students. If there is a $70$% chance that an admitted student will accept the offer and attend the university, what it the probability that university will not have enough dormitory rooms?




My analysis:

If there is $70$% that an admitted student accept the offer and attend the university then among the $2500$ students $1750$ would accept the offer. The probability that the university will not have enough dormitory places would be:



$1786-1785/100=0.36$



However the correct answer must be 0.0559 according to the multiple choice question.



Can you tell me what’s wrong with my analysis and what should be the correct way of thinking?









share|cite|improve this question












share|cite|improve this question




share|cite|improve this question








edited Jul 15 at 21:36









Key Flex

4,471525




4,471525









asked Jul 14 at 13:37









Roy Rizk

887




887











  • Are you familiar with the Binomial distribution?
    – Chris2018
    Jul 14 at 13:41










  • @Chris2006 : Using Binomial law is far to be a good issue.
    – Surb
    Jul 14 at 13:44






  • 1




    use approximation with normal distribution.
    – Chris2018
    Jul 14 at 13:45






  • 1




    I edited some line breaks into the question for clarity but I have no idea how you get your $0.36$ result. Pease review, correct the formula and clarify with a little .explanation.
    – Joffan
    Jul 14 at 13:52
















  • Are you familiar with the Binomial distribution?
    – Chris2018
    Jul 14 at 13:41










  • @Chris2006 : Using Binomial law is far to be a good issue.
    – Surb
    Jul 14 at 13:44






  • 1




    use approximation with normal distribution.
    – Chris2018
    Jul 14 at 13:45






  • 1




    I edited some line breaks into the question for clarity but I have no idea how you get your $0.36$ result. Pease review, correct the formula and clarify with a little .explanation.
    – Joffan
    Jul 14 at 13:52















Are you familiar with the Binomial distribution?
– Chris2018
Jul 14 at 13:41




Are you familiar with the Binomial distribution?
– Chris2018
Jul 14 at 13:41












@Chris2006 : Using Binomial law is far to be a good issue.
– Surb
Jul 14 at 13:44




@Chris2006 : Using Binomial law is far to be a good issue.
– Surb
Jul 14 at 13:44




1




1




use approximation with normal distribution.
– Chris2018
Jul 14 at 13:45




use approximation with normal distribution.
– Chris2018
Jul 14 at 13:45




1




1




I edited some line breaks into the question for clarity but I have no idea how you get your $0.36$ result. Pease review, correct the formula and clarify with a little .explanation.
– Joffan
Jul 14 at 13:52




I edited some line breaks into the question for clarity but I have no idea how you get your $0.36$ result. Pease review, correct the formula and clarify with a little .explanation.
– Joffan
Jul 14 at 13:52










3 Answers
3






active

oldest

votes

















up vote
1
down vote













No it doesn't work. Let $X_i$ denote if the $i-$th student accept or not. Then $X_isim Bernoulli(0.7)$. Set $$S_n=X_1+...+X_n.$$



What you have to compute is $$mathbb PS_2500geq 1787,$$
and to do this, you have to use Central Limit theorem.






share|cite|improve this answer





















  • First I would like to thanks you for your explanation. However, I did not really understand, if Xi denotes if the i-th student accept or not,what is the meaning of Sn and how does a Bernoulli differ from a binomial theorem. Why will we have to compute Sn greater or equal to 1787 and what is the central limit theorem?
    – Roy Rizk
    Jul 14 at 13:49











  • $S_n$ denote the number of student that accepted among the $n$ admitted student. The law of $S_n$ will be indeed a Binomial, i.e. rigorously $$mathbb PS_2500geq 1787=sum_k=1787^2500binom2500k0.7^k0.3^2500-k,$$ but good luck to compute this sum. So you need to use central limit theorem that tels you that $S_nsim mathcal N(2500cdot 0.7, 50cdot 0.7cdot 0.3)$ when $n$ is large enough (in particular, $n=2500$ is large enough). You want to compute the probability that there is not enough room. If $S_2500leq 1786$, the university will have enough room.
    – Surb
    Jul 14 at 13:57










  • So what you are interested at, is when $S_2500>1786$, or in an equivalent way, that $S_2500geq 1787$.
    – Surb
    Jul 14 at 13:59

















up vote
1
down vote













Let us say $X$ to be $2500$ students who will attend this university. So, $X$ has a binomial distribution with trails $n=2500$ and $p=0.70$. Also we are given in the question that the university has dorm spots for only $1786$ freshman students. So, $Xge1787$ and now we can use normal approximation to binomial to find the probability.
$$mu=np=2500times0.7=1750$$
$$sigma=sqrtnp(1-p)=sqrt2500times0.7times0.3approx23$$
Now,
$$P(X>1787)=Pleft(Z>frac1787-175023right)=Pleft(Z>dfrac3723right)=P(Z>1.61)=1-0.946=0.054$$






share|cite|improve this answer























  • Good clear explanation, although the "2000" in your first sentence is perhaps a remnant of an earlier draft? It strikes me that a real-world evaluation would be highly sensitive to that value of 0.7; I wonder what the error on that is...
    – Joffan
    Jul 14 at 15:24

















up vote
0
down vote













$Xsim Binomial(2500,0.7)approx Ysim Normal(1750,525)$ Where $X$ is the number of people that atend the University.

$P(X>1786)=1-P(Xle1786)approx1-P(Y<1786.5)$
$=1-P(Z<frac1786-1750sqrt525)=1-P(Z<1.593)$



using probability tables $1-P(Z<1.593)=1-0.9441=0.0559$






share|cite|improve this answer



















  • 1




    You don't explain anything here. Not even your notation.
    – amWhy
    Jul 14 at 14:09






  • 1




    What do the variables $X$, $Y$, represent? What are the functions $B$ and $N$? What is the relation represented by $sim$?
    – amWhy
    Jul 14 at 14:12










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3 Answers
3






active

oldest

votes








3 Answers
3






active

oldest

votes









active

oldest

votes






active

oldest

votes








up vote
1
down vote













No it doesn't work. Let $X_i$ denote if the $i-$th student accept or not. Then $X_isim Bernoulli(0.7)$. Set $$S_n=X_1+...+X_n.$$



What you have to compute is $$mathbb PS_2500geq 1787,$$
and to do this, you have to use Central Limit theorem.






share|cite|improve this answer





















  • First I would like to thanks you for your explanation. However, I did not really understand, if Xi denotes if the i-th student accept or not,what is the meaning of Sn and how does a Bernoulli differ from a binomial theorem. Why will we have to compute Sn greater or equal to 1787 and what is the central limit theorem?
    – Roy Rizk
    Jul 14 at 13:49











  • $S_n$ denote the number of student that accepted among the $n$ admitted student. The law of $S_n$ will be indeed a Binomial, i.e. rigorously $$mathbb PS_2500geq 1787=sum_k=1787^2500binom2500k0.7^k0.3^2500-k,$$ but good luck to compute this sum. So you need to use central limit theorem that tels you that $S_nsim mathcal N(2500cdot 0.7, 50cdot 0.7cdot 0.3)$ when $n$ is large enough (in particular, $n=2500$ is large enough). You want to compute the probability that there is not enough room. If $S_2500leq 1786$, the university will have enough room.
    – Surb
    Jul 14 at 13:57










  • So what you are interested at, is when $S_2500>1786$, or in an equivalent way, that $S_2500geq 1787$.
    – Surb
    Jul 14 at 13:59














up vote
1
down vote













No it doesn't work. Let $X_i$ denote if the $i-$th student accept or not. Then $X_isim Bernoulli(0.7)$. Set $$S_n=X_1+...+X_n.$$



What you have to compute is $$mathbb PS_2500geq 1787,$$
and to do this, you have to use Central Limit theorem.






share|cite|improve this answer





















  • First I would like to thanks you for your explanation. However, I did not really understand, if Xi denotes if the i-th student accept or not,what is the meaning of Sn and how does a Bernoulli differ from a binomial theorem. Why will we have to compute Sn greater or equal to 1787 and what is the central limit theorem?
    – Roy Rizk
    Jul 14 at 13:49











  • $S_n$ denote the number of student that accepted among the $n$ admitted student. The law of $S_n$ will be indeed a Binomial, i.e. rigorously $$mathbb PS_2500geq 1787=sum_k=1787^2500binom2500k0.7^k0.3^2500-k,$$ but good luck to compute this sum. So you need to use central limit theorem that tels you that $S_nsim mathcal N(2500cdot 0.7, 50cdot 0.7cdot 0.3)$ when $n$ is large enough (in particular, $n=2500$ is large enough). You want to compute the probability that there is not enough room. If $S_2500leq 1786$, the university will have enough room.
    – Surb
    Jul 14 at 13:57










  • So what you are interested at, is when $S_2500>1786$, or in an equivalent way, that $S_2500geq 1787$.
    – Surb
    Jul 14 at 13:59












up vote
1
down vote










up vote
1
down vote









No it doesn't work. Let $X_i$ denote if the $i-$th student accept or not. Then $X_isim Bernoulli(0.7)$. Set $$S_n=X_1+...+X_n.$$



What you have to compute is $$mathbb PS_2500geq 1787,$$
and to do this, you have to use Central Limit theorem.






share|cite|improve this answer













No it doesn't work. Let $X_i$ denote if the $i-$th student accept or not. Then $X_isim Bernoulli(0.7)$. Set $$S_n=X_1+...+X_n.$$



What you have to compute is $$mathbb PS_2500geq 1787,$$
and to do this, you have to use Central Limit theorem.







share|cite|improve this answer













share|cite|improve this answer



share|cite|improve this answer











answered Jul 14 at 13:42









Surb

36.3k84274




36.3k84274











  • First I would like to thanks you for your explanation. However, I did not really understand, if Xi denotes if the i-th student accept or not,what is the meaning of Sn and how does a Bernoulli differ from a binomial theorem. Why will we have to compute Sn greater or equal to 1787 and what is the central limit theorem?
    – Roy Rizk
    Jul 14 at 13:49











  • $S_n$ denote the number of student that accepted among the $n$ admitted student. The law of $S_n$ will be indeed a Binomial, i.e. rigorously $$mathbb PS_2500geq 1787=sum_k=1787^2500binom2500k0.7^k0.3^2500-k,$$ but good luck to compute this sum. So you need to use central limit theorem that tels you that $S_nsim mathcal N(2500cdot 0.7, 50cdot 0.7cdot 0.3)$ when $n$ is large enough (in particular, $n=2500$ is large enough). You want to compute the probability that there is not enough room. If $S_2500leq 1786$, the university will have enough room.
    – Surb
    Jul 14 at 13:57










  • So what you are interested at, is when $S_2500>1786$, or in an equivalent way, that $S_2500geq 1787$.
    – Surb
    Jul 14 at 13:59
















  • First I would like to thanks you for your explanation. However, I did not really understand, if Xi denotes if the i-th student accept or not,what is the meaning of Sn and how does a Bernoulli differ from a binomial theorem. Why will we have to compute Sn greater or equal to 1787 and what is the central limit theorem?
    – Roy Rizk
    Jul 14 at 13:49











  • $S_n$ denote the number of student that accepted among the $n$ admitted student. The law of $S_n$ will be indeed a Binomial, i.e. rigorously $$mathbb PS_2500geq 1787=sum_k=1787^2500binom2500k0.7^k0.3^2500-k,$$ but good luck to compute this sum. So you need to use central limit theorem that tels you that $S_nsim mathcal N(2500cdot 0.7, 50cdot 0.7cdot 0.3)$ when $n$ is large enough (in particular, $n=2500$ is large enough). You want to compute the probability that there is not enough room. If $S_2500leq 1786$, the university will have enough room.
    – Surb
    Jul 14 at 13:57










  • So what you are interested at, is when $S_2500>1786$, or in an equivalent way, that $S_2500geq 1787$.
    – Surb
    Jul 14 at 13:59















First I would like to thanks you for your explanation. However, I did not really understand, if Xi denotes if the i-th student accept or not,what is the meaning of Sn and how does a Bernoulli differ from a binomial theorem. Why will we have to compute Sn greater or equal to 1787 and what is the central limit theorem?
– Roy Rizk
Jul 14 at 13:49





First I would like to thanks you for your explanation. However, I did not really understand, if Xi denotes if the i-th student accept or not,what is the meaning of Sn and how does a Bernoulli differ from a binomial theorem. Why will we have to compute Sn greater or equal to 1787 and what is the central limit theorem?
– Roy Rizk
Jul 14 at 13:49













$S_n$ denote the number of student that accepted among the $n$ admitted student. The law of $S_n$ will be indeed a Binomial, i.e. rigorously $$mathbb PS_2500geq 1787=sum_k=1787^2500binom2500k0.7^k0.3^2500-k,$$ but good luck to compute this sum. So you need to use central limit theorem that tels you that $S_nsim mathcal N(2500cdot 0.7, 50cdot 0.7cdot 0.3)$ when $n$ is large enough (in particular, $n=2500$ is large enough). You want to compute the probability that there is not enough room. If $S_2500leq 1786$, the university will have enough room.
– Surb
Jul 14 at 13:57




$S_n$ denote the number of student that accepted among the $n$ admitted student. The law of $S_n$ will be indeed a Binomial, i.e. rigorously $$mathbb PS_2500geq 1787=sum_k=1787^2500binom2500k0.7^k0.3^2500-k,$$ but good luck to compute this sum. So you need to use central limit theorem that tels you that $S_nsim mathcal N(2500cdot 0.7, 50cdot 0.7cdot 0.3)$ when $n$ is large enough (in particular, $n=2500$ is large enough). You want to compute the probability that there is not enough room. If $S_2500leq 1786$, the university will have enough room.
– Surb
Jul 14 at 13:57












So what you are interested at, is when $S_2500>1786$, or in an equivalent way, that $S_2500geq 1787$.
– Surb
Jul 14 at 13:59




So what you are interested at, is when $S_2500>1786$, or in an equivalent way, that $S_2500geq 1787$.
– Surb
Jul 14 at 13:59










up vote
1
down vote













Let us say $X$ to be $2500$ students who will attend this university. So, $X$ has a binomial distribution with trails $n=2500$ and $p=0.70$. Also we are given in the question that the university has dorm spots for only $1786$ freshman students. So, $Xge1787$ and now we can use normal approximation to binomial to find the probability.
$$mu=np=2500times0.7=1750$$
$$sigma=sqrtnp(1-p)=sqrt2500times0.7times0.3approx23$$
Now,
$$P(X>1787)=Pleft(Z>frac1787-175023right)=Pleft(Z>dfrac3723right)=P(Z>1.61)=1-0.946=0.054$$






share|cite|improve this answer























  • Good clear explanation, although the "2000" in your first sentence is perhaps a remnant of an earlier draft? It strikes me that a real-world evaluation would be highly sensitive to that value of 0.7; I wonder what the error on that is...
    – Joffan
    Jul 14 at 15:24














up vote
1
down vote













Let us say $X$ to be $2500$ students who will attend this university. So, $X$ has a binomial distribution with trails $n=2500$ and $p=0.70$. Also we are given in the question that the university has dorm spots for only $1786$ freshman students. So, $Xge1787$ and now we can use normal approximation to binomial to find the probability.
$$mu=np=2500times0.7=1750$$
$$sigma=sqrtnp(1-p)=sqrt2500times0.7times0.3approx23$$
Now,
$$P(X>1787)=Pleft(Z>frac1787-175023right)=Pleft(Z>dfrac3723right)=P(Z>1.61)=1-0.946=0.054$$






share|cite|improve this answer























  • Good clear explanation, although the "2000" in your first sentence is perhaps a remnant of an earlier draft? It strikes me that a real-world evaluation would be highly sensitive to that value of 0.7; I wonder what the error on that is...
    – Joffan
    Jul 14 at 15:24












up vote
1
down vote










up vote
1
down vote









Let us say $X$ to be $2500$ students who will attend this university. So, $X$ has a binomial distribution with trails $n=2500$ and $p=0.70$. Also we are given in the question that the university has dorm spots for only $1786$ freshman students. So, $Xge1787$ and now we can use normal approximation to binomial to find the probability.
$$mu=np=2500times0.7=1750$$
$$sigma=sqrtnp(1-p)=sqrt2500times0.7times0.3approx23$$
Now,
$$P(X>1787)=Pleft(Z>frac1787-175023right)=Pleft(Z>dfrac3723right)=P(Z>1.61)=1-0.946=0.054$$






share|cite|improve this answer















Let us say $X$ to be $2500$ students who will attend this university. So, $X$ has a binomial distribution with trails $n=2500$ and $p=0.70$. Also we are given in the question that the university has dorm spots for only $1786$ freshman students. So, $Xge1787$ and now we can use normal approximation to binomial to find the probability.
$$mu=np=2500times0.7=1750$$
$$sigma=sqrtnp(1-p)=sqrt2500times0.7times0.3approx23$$
Now,
$$P(X>1787)=Pleft(Z>frac1787-175023right)=Pleft(Z>dfrac3723right)=P(Z>1.61)=1-0.946=0.054$$







share|cite|improve this answer















share|cite|improve this answer



share|cite|improve this answer








edited Jul 14 at 16:25


























answered Jul 14 at 14:36









Key Flex

4,471525




4,471525











  • Good clear explanation, although the "2000" in your first sentence is perhaps a remnant of an earlier draft? It strikes me that a real-world evaluation would be highly sensitive to that value of 0.7; I wonder what the error on that is...
    – Joffan
    Jul 14 at 15:24
















  • Good clear explanation, although the "2000" in your first sentence is perhaps a remnant of an earlier draft? It strikes me that a real-world evaluation would be highly sensitive to that value of 0.7; I wonder what the error on that is...
    – Joffan
    Jul 14 at 15:24















Good clear explanation, although the "2000" in your first sentence is perhaps a remnant of an earlier draft? It strikes me that a real-world evaluation would be highly sensitive to that value of 0.7; I wonder what the error on that is...
– Joffan
Jul 14 at 15:24




Good clear explanation, although the "2000" in your first sentence is perhaps a remnant of an earlier draft? It strikes me that a real-world evaluation would be highly sensitive to that value of 0.7; I wonder what the error on that is...
– Joffan
Jul 14 at 15:24










up vote
0
down vote













$Xsim Binomial(2500,0.7)approx Ysim Normal(1750,525)$ Where $X$ is the number of people that atend the University.

$P(X>1786)=1-P(Xle1786)approx1-P(Y<1786.5)$
$=1-P(Z<frac1786-1750sqrt525)=1-P(Z<1.593)$



using probability tables $1-P(Z<1.593)=1-0.9441=0.0559$






share|cite|improve this answer



















  • 1




    You don't explain anything here. Not even your notation.
    – amWhy
    Jul 14 at 14:09






  • 1




    What do the variables $X$, $Y$, represent? What are the functions $B$ and $N$? What is the relation represented by $sim$?
    – amWhy
    Jul 14 at 14:12














up vote
0
down vote













$Xsim Binomial(2500,0.7)approx Ysim Normal(1750,525)$ Where $X$ is the number of people that atend the University.

$P(X>1786)=1-P(Xle1786)approx1-P(Y<1786.5)$
$=1-P(Z<frac1786-1750sqrt525)=1-P(Z<1.593)$



using probability tables $1-P(Z<1.593)=1-0.9441=0.0559$






share|cite|improve this answer



















  • 1




    You don't explain anything here. Not even your notation.
    – amWhy
    Jul 14 at 14:09






  • 1




    What do the variables $X$, $Y$, represent? What are the functions $B$ and $N$? What is the relation represented by $sim$?
    – amWhy
    Jul 14 at 14:12












up vote
0
down vote










up vote
0
down vote









$Xsim Binomial(2500,0.7)approx Ysim Normal(1750,525)$ Where $X$ is the number of people that atend the University.

$P(X>1786)=1-P(Xle1786)approx1-P(Y<1786.5)$
$=1-P(Z<frac1786-1750sqrt525)=1-P(Z<1.593)$



using probability tables $1-P(Z<1.593)=1-0.9441=0.0559$






share|cite|improve this answer















$Xsim Binomial(2500,0.7)approx Ysim Normal(1750,525)$ Where $X$ is the number of people that atend the University.

$P(X>1786)=1-P(Xle1786)approx1-P(Y<1786.5)$
$=1-P(Z<frac1786-1750sqrt525)=1-P(Z<1.593)$



using probability tables $1-P(Z<1.593)=1-0.9441=0.0559$







share|cite|improve this answer















share|cite|improve this answer



share|cite|improve this answer








edited Jul 14 at 16:04


























answered Jul 14 at 13:51









Chris2018

63319




63319







  • 1




    You don't explain anything here. Not even your notation.
    – amWhy
    Jul 14 at 14:09






  • 1




    What do the variables $X$, $Y$, represent? What are the functions $B$ and $N$? What is the relation represented by $sim$?
    – amWhy
    Jul 14 at 14:12












  • 1




    You don't explain anything here. Not even your notation.
    – amWhy
    Jul 14 at 14:09






  • 1




    What do the variables $X$, $Y$, represent? What are the functions $B$ and $N$? What is the relation represented by $sim$?
    – amWhy
    Jul 14 at 14:12







1




1




You don't explain anything here. Not even your notation.
– amWhy
Jul 14 at 14:09




You don't explain anything here. Not even your notation.
– amWhy
Jul 14 at 14:09




1




1




What do the variables $X$, $Y$, represent? What are the functions $B$ and $N$? What is the relation represented by $sim$?
– amWhy
Jul 14 at 14:12




What do the variables $X$, $Y$, represent? What are the functions $B$ and $N$? What is the relation represented by $sim$?
– amWhy
Jul 14 at 14:12












 

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